Sports, run like a markets desk

Every pick is a position with a priced edge.

We price the edge, track closing line value, size with discipline, and publish the full audited record. Drawdowns and all.

TRACKING 23D129 GRADED5 LEAGUESCLV 43.8%
apex://desk tape.live
Tracking live
Recently settled
  • Jun 26LSoccer Australia Winner PAR at AUS | USA Winner TUR at USA-0.70u
  • Jun 26LSoccer Both Teams To Score BTTS Japan vs Sweden | Over 2.5 goals scored Total Goals Japan vs Sweden-1.50u
  • Jun 26LSoccer Sweden Winner JPN at SWE-2.00u
  • Jun 25LSoccer Germany Winner ECU at GER | Over 1.5 goals scored Total Goals Ecuador vs Germany-1.50u
  • Jun 25LSoccer Ivory Coast wins by more than 1.5 goals Spread Curacao vs Ivory Coast | Over 2.5 goals scored Total Goals Curacao vs Ivory Coast-1.63u
  • Jun 25WSoccer Yan Diomande Score or Assist Curacao vs Ivory Coast+0.98u
  • Jun 25LSoccer Ivory Coast wins by more than 2.5 goals Spread Curacao vs Ivory Coast-1.52u
apex://desk ledger // cumulative net units
Net units+0.0u
ROI+5.6%
Win rate55.8%
CLV beat43.8%
Max drawdown13.1u
The system

Not tips. A repeatable process with a tracked edge.

01

Expected value first

A bet only fires when the price beats our model. No edge, no position. The number has to be wrong in our favor.

02

Closing line value

Every pick is measured against the closing number. Beating the close, over a real sample, is the signal that the edge was actually there.

03

Disciplined sizing

Position size scales with conviction, never with emotion or a chase. One unit equals one percent of bankroll, stated on every play.

04

Sample over streaks

Variance is loud and edge is quiet. We publish the whole sample, the cold weeks included, so the record means something.

Inside a pick

Every pick is a fully priced position.

Not a one line text blast. Each pick is a card with the game, the play, the price, the sizing, and the closing line value once it settles.

Matchup
League, market, and the game, read at a glance.
The play and the price
The exact selection, the odds we took, and the unit size.
Desk read
Closing line value on every graded pick, so the edge is measurable.
Tiered access
Lower tiers see a locked teaser. Your tier unlocks the body.
NBAtotal
Won

NuggetsvsSuns

Pick
Nuggets team total over 112.5
2.0uhigh conviction
-108+1.85u

Number opened soft and the market never corrected. Pace and rest line up with the model, and we are paid a better price than the projection.

Desk readclose -119CLV +4.7%
NFL
Jun 27

EaglesvsCowboys

Syndicate and upUnlock to view

Illustrative cards. Live results are computed from real graded picks.

Performance

Computed live from graded picks. Never typed in by hand.

Net units+7.2u+7.2u this year
ROI on turnover+5.6%128.2u staked
Win rate55.8%72 W, 57 L
CLV beat rate43.8%+31.4% avg

Equity curve // cumulative net units

Max drawdown 13.1u

By league // net units

  • Soccer60% · 70 picks
    +3.85u
  • Tennis64.3% · 14 picks
    +3.25u
  • MLB100% · 3 picks
    +2.25u
  • MMA47.2% · 36 picks
    -0.77u
  • NBA16.7% · 6 picks
    -1.35u

Closing line value

44%
Beat the close+31.36% average

Monthly profit // net units, last 8 months

Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Bankroll projector

Run your own assumptions. See the variance, not just the dream.

apex://desk projection.model
Cold run
853
Expected
1,074
Hot run
1,295

The band is a plus or minus 1.5 sigma range, not a floor or ceiling. This is an illustrative model using your inputs, not a prediction and not a promise of profit. Real results vary and losing is possible.

Pricing

Start where you want. Ride a slate or run the desk.

Free trial

3 days of full All Access.

Full All Access for 3 days. Card required. Converts to your chosen tier unless you cancel.

Start the trial

Day Pass

$15

Ride a single slate. All Access for 24 hours, no renewal.

Buy

Week Pass

$35

Take a full weekend or week. All Access for 7 days, no renewal.

Buy

Core

The daily card, sized and explained.

$49/mo
  • All standard daily picks
  • Recommended unit sizing on every play
  • The reasoning behind each position
  • Full graded results history
Subscribe to Core
Most popular

Sharp

The full desk. Model, CLV, and live.

$99/mo
  • Everything in Core
  • Premium high conviction positions
  • Full model and closing line value breakdowns
  • Live in-game and near-tip picks
  • Line move alerts
Subscribe to Sharp
Capped seats

Syndicate

First look. Capped seats. One to one.

$249/mo
  • Everything in Sharp
  • Picks released to Syndicate first
  • Capped seats, never diluted
  • One to one staking review note
Subscribe to Syndicate

Prices in USD. A sports information and analysis subscription. No outcome or profit is promised. Cancel anytime from your account.

Transparency

The proof is the whole record, not a highlight reel.

Touts post screenshots of winners. A desk publishes the ledger. Read the entire graded history before you pay a cent.

  • Every pick is timestamped in the app before the event starts.
  • Results are graded against the closing number, so closing line value is tracked on each play.
  • The full record is public, drawdowns and losing weeks included.
  • Nothing is deleted or hidden after the fact. The sample is the sample.
Questions

Straight answers.

What do I actually get?

Picks delivered inside the app, gated by your tier. Core gets the standard daily card with sizing and reasoning. Sharp adds premium positions, the model and closing line value breakdowns, and live in-game picks. Syndicate sees picks first and has capped seats.

Is this betting advice?

No. Apex Picks is a sports information and analysis subscription, for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, or betting advice, and no outcome or profit is promised. You make your own decisions.

How is the record verified?

Every pick is timestamped in the app before the event, then graded against the closing number once it settles. The full graded history is public, including the cold stretches. Nothing is deleted after the fact.

What is a unit?

One unit equals one percent of your bankroll. Sizing is published on every pick as a recommendation, not advice. It scales with conviction, not emotion.

What is closing line value?

It is the difference between the price you took and the price at the close. Consistently beating the close, over a real sample, is the clearest sign that an edge was actually there.

How does the trial work?

The trial is 3 days of full All Access. A card is required up front. It converts to the monthly tier you chose unless you cancel before it ends. Cancel during the trial and you are not billed.

Can I cancel, and do passes renew?

You can cancel a subscription anytime from your account, and you keep access through the period you paid for. Day and week passes are one time and never renew.